With the Best Picture race looking to go in any direction, the same could be said for many of the other categories at this year’s Academy Awards. This year sees a number of close races where there’s a good chance that frontrunners could cancel each other out or an apparent surprise could quietly slip into the lead and win on the night.

But, before the winners are unveiled later tonight, here are my final (until they change five minutes after posting this) predictions for who and what will win in each category at this year’s Oscars.

Best Cinematography – The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two could possibly slip ahead here, repeating the first film’s win in this category, but The Brutalist seems to have the edge over the rest of the nominees here. With the film a possible frontrunner in Best Production Design, and good production design sometimes being confused for cinematography, the way the various landscapes are captured, particularly amongst the developing construction, seems to put it ahead in this race. Quite simply: the film looks great and that seems to be a point that people very much agree upon.

Best Costume Design – Wicked
As usual in most categories, particularly the technicals, replace ‘best’ with ‘most’ and you’re more likely to find the winner. Wicked has a grand display of costumes throughout and it appears to have the upper hand over the other nominees here due to the upfront and clear costume design. Nosferatu seems to be the runner-up here, but with only a couple of technical nominations it has something of a disadvantage. Wicked simply seems to be the kind of film, and costumes, that are more likely to make it to a win here.

Best Makeup And Hairstyling – The Substance
It genuinely feels as if anything (apart from Emilia Pérez) could win in this category. But, while the body horror element of The Substance could put it a disadvantage due to not being watched by all voters, despite a Best Picture nomination, it does perhaps have the most upfront examples for this category which work their way into the narrative. While this is also the case for other nominees, such as A Different Man, The Substance may well have the edge because of just how much change we see in the performances, particular Demi Moore, over the course of the film. Plus, Moore is a frontrunner for Leading Actress and often Makeup And Hairstyling will pair up with one of the acting winners. I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the other films (apart from Emilia Pérez) manages to take the win in this category, though.

Best Production Design – Wicked
I really want to say that The Brutalist is likely to win here, mostly because I think it should win, but it seems to be the runner-up in a category that I think is much closer than most people seem to think. But while the idea of architecture and design is more key to the narrative of The Brutalist, Wicked perhaps has the grander examples that are most noticeable through the towering structures and colours of the various buildings and locations seen throughout.

Best Sound – Dune: Part Two
Another race where it feels some nominees are being underestimated, namely The Wild Robot, and even A Complete Unknown, but it feels as if this is one that Dune: Part Two will quite easily get. Once again creating the soundscape of the world of Arrakis, and beyond, and the roars, crashes and bangs of explosions against giant spacecraft. The detail that goes into creating the sound of the world just as much as the look of it feels like this will be one of the few repeat wins tonight for Dune.

Best Visual Effects – Dune: Part Two
In a category heavy with monkeys and sci-fi, Dune: Part Two, for the same reasons as its Sound win, feels a safe bet here. Again, quite simply because of the highly cinematic, and believable, world that the visual effects in question create.

Best Original Song – El Mal from Emilia Pérez
Emilia Pérez’s chances may have fallen away in some categories after the controversial (and downright racist) comments of its lead star and director, but Zoe Saldaña’s Supporting Actress chances seem to have gone unhurt. And with this song being largely left to her character it might have less of a dip, even if it ever had one. But, the song in general has been a frontrunner in this category for some time, and has still had wins at other ceremonies. The main competition appears to be the returning force of Diane Warren, having written the music and lyrics for The Journey from The Six Triple Eight, this could very well finally be her year after 16 total nominations (and one each year for the last eight years). But, whether the song has the strength to win in an albeit quite weak category is a different matter. I still think that this is quite likely to be El Mal’s, especially as it seems to have been quite a standout song in a musical film voters will have seen compared to one from a film that there’s a chance that may not have even heard of.

Best Original Score – The Brutalist
Conclave could sneak up and grab the win here, but The Brutalist appears to have the upper-hand through the build-up and general discussion around this category. It’s also a score that’s very present throughout the film which could give it a boost as well.

Best Film Editing – Conclave
A tense thriller with plenty of well-tracked twists and turns all told over the course of just 2-hours, that feels like a strong winner for this category. If Anora’s love spreads further from the major categories it has strong chances of winning in that could lead to a win here, and maybe the fact that The Brutalist gets away with a three-and-a-half hour run-time could be commended, alongside just what it packs in in that time. But, simply for how concisely yet effectively Conclave tells its story and establishes its details, I’m pretty confident in predicting it to win here.

Best Documentary Short – I Am Ready, Warden
As usual, I’m quite out of the loop when it comes to the short categories, so to some extent my predictions are informed by those of other people and general consensuses online. But, with the idea of death row and the death sentence becoming increasingly prominent in the US and the story that’s being told in I Am Ready, Warden it seems as if it’ll likely connect with Academy members and get the win here – although with this reasoning Death By Numbers could very well win for its deeply emotional focus. While, Netflix’s The Only Girl In The Orchestra could prove a challenger this seems like it could grab the win.

Best Live-Action Short – The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
It feels as if there’s a push for each of the nominees in this category, but I’ve gone for The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent for much the same reason as I predicted I Am Ready, Warden: a sense of relevance. Not just for the US but the direction people feel the world is going in, and the story that’s being told over the 13-minute run-time. It appears to be a short that many people have responded to and may just have the bit of an extra backing compared to the other shorts in this category to pick up the Oscar.

Best Animated Short – Yuck!
As with Live-Action Short it feels like there’s a good backing behind each of the nominees here. And while Wander To Wonder could sneak up and take the win here, Yuck! appears to be the popular choice (or at least one of them). But, Yuck! seems to be the short that might have the widest appeal due to its more straightforward nature. But, again, anything could win here and my predictions in the short film categories should be taken with a mountain of salt (or just simply ignored).

Best Documentary Feature – No Other Land
I’m really not certain about this one. No Other Land has only had a very small release in the US, and there are many saying that its basis is enough to turn a lot of voters away. Porcelain War (the only nominee I’ve not been able to see yet due to no UK release as of yet) has also appeared as a winner and nominee at a number of big ceremonies in recent weeks. However, I think that the importance, and harrowing nature, of No Other Land is going to be enough to connect with voters and lead the film to a rightful win in this category, providing that enough voters will have been able to see it – of course there will be screeners and ways for members to watch the film, so the lack of release may not damage it as much.

Best International Feature – Emilia Pérez
With the growth that I’m Still Here has had in recent weeks, and the controversy around Emilia Pérez, there’s a chance that this once favourite could easily have dipped away from the lead in this particular race. However, with 13 nominations, and a lot of love across the film industry, I think that Emilia Pérez is still likely to get this win, even if it isn’t as much of a frontrunner as it once was.

Best Animated Feature – The Wild Robot
Inside Out 2 seemed like the clear winner when it was first released, and even for quite some time after, but once awards season properly kicked in The Wild Robot appeared to take the lead and has had a lot of conversation around it, and picked up a couple of key wins along the way. Add in the layered story about parenthood that the film tells, which could connect well with a number of voters, and the fact it may be one of the more widely seen nominees in this category (and its two additional nominations in tech categories where it has some backing) and The Wild Robot feels like a clear winner here.

Best Original Screenplay – Anora
Anora has picked up a good deal of Original Screenplay awards throughout this awards season, and with it being a frontrunner for Best Picture it seems almost locked in to win here. Especially with the details that come forward in the final scenes, and the humour that it’s managed to strike with a wide audience.

Best Adapted Screenplay – Conclave
As with Anora in Original Screenplay, Conclave has picked up a number of Adapted Screenplay awards this season and is a frontrunner for Best Picture. It also stands out amongst the rest of the nominees in this category which don’t quite have the same push of backing as screenplays in the impact that they’ve had. Conclave here also gains the same points that it does for its likely Film Editing win with the various well-tracked twists and turns throughout.

Best Supporting Actor – Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain
Kieran Culkin has pretty much won every single precursor under the sun for his performance in this film. He’s almost guaranteed the win.

Best Supporting Actress – Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez
Much like Culkin, Saldaña has won many precursor awards, even after the controversy surrounding the film and some of the figures involved in it. She seems pretty comfortably set to win the Oscar, particularly after having won at SAG where a good deal of people were predicting a win for Ariana Grande after the nomination support for Wicked at the ceremony. When Saldaña won there it seemed pretty clear that she was on track for the Oscar.

Best Leading Actor – Adrien Brody in The Brutalist
While Timothée Chalamet may have pulled ahead with a surprise win at SAG, Brody has won a good deal of awards in the build-up to the Oscars. But, what we have is a similar situation to when Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser were battling out for this award a couple of years ago. A biographical performance of a very well known singer, with Chalamet doing his own singing in the film, and a very physical performance which you can see the effort being put in to. I have a feeling that Brody may just have the edge of Chalamet because of the physical side of the performance and the directions the film takes his character in regards to past traumas and the emotional waves that he creates and rides as part of his journey, and performance.

Best Leading Actress – Demi Moore in The Substance
While Mikey Madison may have won this award at BAFTA, alongside a couple of other places, for her role in Anora, Demi Moore surged ahead from an outside position to the frontrunner shortly after a win at the Golden Globes, boosted even further by a SAG win. Madison could still get a win here, or maybe somehow the pair will cancel each other out (albeit with quite different roles and performances) and Fernanda Torres pulls ahead and wins for her role in I’m Still Here, however Moore’s role is one reflective of the film industry, and while The Substance hasn’t got much chance of winning Best Picture due to its body horror angle this doesn’t seem to have stopped Moore from her Best Actress wins. It’s also something of a physical performance with its transformations and make-up, as cited if it wins Makeup And Hairstyling, which can often pair with an acting win. Plus, there are those who are saying there’s something of a career-side to Moore’s chances and possible win. Madison has a lot of people backing her, and she’s brilliant in Anora, and unlike some for Chalamet in Lead Actor, age doesn’t quite seem to be blocking her with people claiming ‘she’s too young’ (a stupid idea like repeat wins – you’re judging the quality of the performance or what the category falls into in this case against the ‘competition’ from the year, not whether someone was too young or old). Regardless, it does seem as if Demi Moore might just have the edge in the Lead Actress race. For a body horror film, and that’s quite exciting!

Best Director – Brady Corbet for The Brutalist
After his win at the DGA Awards Sean Baker got a boost in this category, alongside Anora in general, however the scale of The Brutalist in terms of visual and narrative style is full of excellent direction and flair. Corbet’s direction has been consistently praised, and while his loss at the DGA was quite a surprise and also seemed to dip The Brutalist’s chances in both Picture and Director, I still think he has a good chance at, deservingly, winning the Oscar. Especially with what he managed to do with that film on around $10 million, something which he has been commended for a good deal already. The general style of The Brutalist, and again the scope of it, has a lot of elements and details that are often favoured by the Academy when it comes to awarding Best Director, I still think this award is likely to go to Corbet.

Best Picture – Anora
This award could genuinely go to any of the nominated films and I don’t think I’d really be surprised by any of them. However, the race appears to have come down to Anora and Conclave, with The Brutalist just behind them in a likely third place. While Conclave picked up late wins at BAFTA and a Best Ensemble nab at SAG the latter feels as if it is definitely for the overall ensemble acting performance of the cast, as it should be, while BAFTA have disagreed with the eventual Best Picture winner on most occasions in recent years. After picking up big wins from the DGA, PGA (who use the same preferential ballot voting system as the Oscars do for Best Picture) and WGA and seemingly building back momentum after some had thought it faded away. With Madison also being a strong contender in the Lead Actress race, and her title character being so reflective of the film as a whole in the way she powers through it, that could also be a slight boost for Anora in the Best Picture race overall. This is a truly unpredictable year, and while it might not seem set to win big in terms of total awards on the night that doesn’t necessarily damage the film’s chances. Remember, CODA won Best Picture while only being nominated for two other awards (Supporting Actor for Troy Kotsur and Adapted Screenplay, both of which it won). Especially if leaning into the shifting nature of the films the Academy leans towards (such as Moonlight, The Shape Of Water and Everything Everywhere All At Once), I think Anora may well end up being this year’s Best Picture winner. Although, ask me in ten seconds and I’ll likely tell you Conclave.

To read this year’s excessively overlong ramble looking at the chances of each of this year’s Best Picture nominees winning the top prize on Oscar night you can read 2025’s What Will Win Best Picture? piece here.

After last year’s Best Picture nominees saw a selection of big names, in terms of titles and crews, competing for the top prize, 2025’s line-up is dominated by a diverse range of genre films. Featuring multiple blockbusters, indie flicks and foreign-language films there truly is an eclectic selection in the running for the top prize at this year’s Oscars. And with a race which has seen a number of different titles take the apparent lead in a consistently neck-and-neck race, even after multiple awards shows throughout the season, to use a consistent cliché, this year’s Best Picture race seems as unpredictable as ever.

And so, as with every year, it’s time to take a look at each of the ten nominees and the forces which could lead them to, or diminish their chances of, Oscar glory. A variety of very different films battling it out on a preferential ballot and a race that’s led to no clear winner; it’s time to once again look at what the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences could name the best film of the last year.

If there’s one film that shows the way in which genre has been embraced in this year’s Best Picture category it’s The Substance. Out of all genres the Academy are often labelled for being particularly horror averse, especially when it comes to body horror. However, after much acclaim when released and many expecting its chances in technical categories The Substance has grown in strength and found itself with five total nominations – including nods for director Coralie Fargeat and Lead Actress Demi Moore, a frontrunner in that category. While when it comes to horror the Academy have their leanings, social horror such as Get Out and Best Picture winner The Silence Of The Lambs (campaigned as more of a social thriller), there’s no denying that while The Substance represents this it’s still a body horror.

Yet, the social elements have even more of an awards body favourite element, the fact that they directly reference and relate to the film industry itself. By revolving around body and beauty standards, particularly those held towards women, from the perspective of a screen star from years gone by there’s a mirror shown to Hollywood. And, if there’s one thing that Academy voters love it’s a film about themselves. However, there’s no denying that the style of horror may likely turn some voters away. Some in anonymous articles have mentioned that they’ll gladly vote for Moore, with the angle of a career vote (although she is great in the film!), but won’t watch the film because of how gory they’ve heard it is. It could very well mean that this is the nominee least likely to appear on the most preferential ballot rankings, diminishing its overall chances.

However, there are still pushes for the film. It finds itself with nominations in key categories, in addition to those mentioned there’s also a nod for Original Screenplay; and finds itself as a frontrunner in Makeup And Hairstyling. If it wins this, particularly with the film’s style in mind, it could mean that The Substance is being given a chance, and has been embraced by multiple key bodies (even if only partly by the actors branch who many say snubbed Margaret Qualley in Supporting Actress – although this branch makes up the largest percentage of Academy votership, with a likely large overlap with SAG who awarded Moore Lead Actress this year) within the Academy. Not just in major categories, but also in below-the-line races showing that there are further impacts being made and noted about the film.

It’s already exceeded early expectations from when it was released, and was one of the most praised and celebrated films of last year for its boldness and just how it presents itself and its themes. With the likes of Everything Everywhere All At Once and The Shape Of Water being recent Best Picture winners, there’s every chance that The Substance could end up winning the top prize this year, especially if it manages to win in the categories it’s predicted by many to win in outside of this race. However, the constant feeling that it may simply be avoided by voters, especially older more traditional members who still make up a good chunk of the membership, due to what it’s perceived to be (in actuality the most severe body horror doesn’t come until towards the end and may not be as graphic as you could make it seem. Well, apart from that ending). But, this is one of the most unpredictable films in this year’s race, because of the fact there’s not really been anything like it at this level at the Oscars before (The Exorcist is perhaps the closest comparison, and maybe the aforementioned Get Out), and with the consistency it’s displayed and the way in which it’s been embraced, particularly as a portrait of and for the film industry, The Substance could find itself sneaking up as a very exciting Best Picture winner.

If The Substance is viewed as a divisive nominee then undoubtedly the most divisive of this year’s Best Picture assortment is Emilia Pérez. A film which has had a strong campaign built against it online. But, if there’s anything that the Oscars have proved over the years, it’s that voters don’t really take into account, or see, what’s happening online; after all Green Book still won Best Picture. That is apart from when such points make their way into the trades and beyond, then a film can find itself on shaky ground. After receiving 13 nominations, the most of any film this year, and being a much-discussed favourite of many vocal figures in the industry, this musical drama’s chances of receiving Best Picture quickly diminished shortly after nominations were announced.

Past (although still very recent) controversial (and in some cases downright racist) comments and tweets from lead actress (and nominee) Karla Sofía Gascón and (also nominated) director Jacques Audiard were brought to light bringing much controversy to the film and its awards chances. Can voters vote for Emilia Pérez and the film about her when the person playing her has made such troubling statements? It certainly could be the case. But, what if the film is actually about Zoe Saldaña’s character? Despite being a frontrunner, having almost swept the category at multiple awards shows where voting has closed after the controversy surrounding the film, in the Supporting Actress category many have claimed Saldaña to be the lead – in one of what many have said are multiple instances of category fraud in this year’s supporting categories – and perhaps this, despite the title, could switch the perspective and tone of Emilia Pérez for some voters.

The film has been a big contender since its Cannes premiere, meaning it’s been in the conversation for a long time and clearly has remained in some minds, and it still finds itself as a frontrunner in the categories it was leading even before Gascón’s past comments were brought to light. And a vote in Best International Feature could lead some voters to remember how much they liked the film there, leading it to a higher ranking on the preferential Best Picture ballot. Or, the adverse effect could be had. Why give the film multiple wins in categories where it’s been named as an overall best, why not share the love? Although, again with 13 nominations, the love certainly seems to be strongly recognised across the Academy. And with two Best Original Song nominations, with El Mal still leading the pack for the win, the key musical elements of the film are also clearly being remembered and focused on and staying in the minds of voters. Maybe an earworm could be what keeps Emilia Pérez in mind (even if it didn’t work for La La Land a few years ago).

But, where the film could best succeed is in its representation. While many Mexicans and LGBTQ+ people have spoken out against the films representation and said that it’s full of negative portrayals, for those who have liked the film, and there are clearly many, the story on display and those featured in it could act as something of a political vote. The Oscars have certainly been political on a number of occasions, and under a returning Donald Trump presidency there could be a handful of figures who push a film like Emilia Pérez in the wake of this, despite the backlash towards it in this regard. It has clearly had a staying power, there’s no doubt about that. And I also don’t doubt the amount of Academy members who are completely unaware of any division or controversy relating to the film or those in it. It was once a frontrunner and seemed one of two films that could win this prize, and then suddenly fell away overnight. But, if its wins at other ceremonies show anything, it’s that there’s still clear support for this film and maybe there’s been an overestimation of how much it’s fallen away in the Best Picture race, alongside others. After all, much of this doom-saying is on social media. And since when does that dictate what wins Best Picture?

If there’s one film that some are saying could damage Emilia Pérez’s chances not just in Best Picture but also Best International Feature, it’s I’m Still Here. Because why not just pit the non-English language features against each other instead of looking at their respective stories and elements? Much like The Substance, I’m Still Here found success at the Golden Globes (while I’ve been negative towards this ceremony many times in the past, one thing it has done this year is shine a light on these films and helped grow their interest and chances in the awards season races). From there this Brazilian film went from being on very few radars to being a contender in three Oscar categories, including Best Picture.

Much like Drive My Car in 2022, I’m Still Here has grown as a word-of-mouth success throughout awards season. After it started to do well at other ceremonies people went to check it out and see why it was getting such acclaim. While this film may not have the same number as nominations, or perhaps success, as Drive My Car it may have had slightly less time, and has only grown as more people have had the chance to see it, especially after it crept into what appears to be the ninth or tenth slot for eventual nominees. While that slot often signifies a film with an outside chance of winning Best Picture, due to not many appearances or mentions in the conversation, there’s no denying the growth that this one has had since the nominations, again because of the word-of-mouth success.

In International Feature it could pull ahead of Emilia Pérez, and even in its other nominated category, Leading Actress, some are predicting a possible win for Fernanda Torres, and not even in a situation where Demi Moore and Mikey Madison cancel each other out. While missing out on key Screenplay, Director and Editing nominations, I’m Still Here could well have a chance of winning the Oscars’ highest honour. Some of its themes, the film itself is set largely in the early-70s, echo into today and have an air of social relevance alongside telling what has been praised as a strong and effective story with the force of an emotionally stirring leading performance.

And since the nominations there has been a big campaign put behind the film. And one that doesn’t seem to have backfired as has been criticism of some films in the past, often those backed by Netflix; one of the criticisms of 2022 nominee The Power Of The Dog (which lost to fellow streamer Apple TV+’s CODA) was that it simply became overpromoted to voters. While subsequent awards bodies have put minimal attention on the film the effect on Oscar voters could lead it to a Best Picture win, if the limited time between nomination and voting closing meant they had time to make a bigger connection with it compared to those that have had longer to stay in the mind, and may have been watched more than once. In that regard, I’m Still Here might have something of an uphill struggle compared to its competition (and the fact that its qualifying run was a very brief, very limited release at the end of last year with its main US release only arriving just a couple of weeks ago, although in time to be checked out on the big screen at a key time for voting so it’s fresher in the minds). If its impact is strong enough, and its word-of-mouth consistent enough, then we could very well be seeing the second non-English language feature winning Best Picture.

Moving from a small film that’s grown through word-of-mouth to a blockbuster which has had masses of promotion. Wicked has been a part of not just awards but general conversation for months prior to its release with what might be one of the world’s longest, and still ongoing, press tours. After years of trying to get an adaptation of one of Broadway’s most successful musicals to the big screen, Wicked had plenty of build up and plenty of box office. Showing strength after overperforming against predictions at other ceremonies, in terms of nominations, translating into 10 nods at the Oscars (not including one for Original Song, with the film making the rare decision not to include one for the adaptation).

However, what might hamper Wicked is the fact that it’s only half a story. With Part II (AKA Wicked: For Good) scheduled for release in November of this year, and the film ending on a cliffhanger, there’s a chance that voters may wait for the second part to be released, presuming it will be as good, with the thought that by that time it will have their vote. It’s something we’ve seen before with The Lord Of The Rings and even Dune, the sequel of which is also nominated for Best Picture this year, that if we know there’s a follow-up on the horizon there may be nominations but the win will often be waited for, if it ever arrives.

But, Wicked appears to have particular favour with the actors branch, having done well with SAG nominations, including a surprise nod for Jonathan Bailey in Supporting Actor, although not translating to the Oscars. Despite this, the film didn’t pick up any awards at the ceremony, losing Best Ensemble to Conclave. Meaning that there may be favour towards Wicked from the Academy’s biggest branch, but maybe not enough to lead towards a win.

There’s also the fact that while the film has ten nominations, including a slight surprise appearance in Original Score, it lacks a presence in Best Director or Adapted Screenplay, key categories to look out for alongside acting and editing, which it ticks the boxes of. With these nominations lacking it does mean that Wicked may have something of a distance to Best Picture, but there’s clear support from a number of groups – and it’s believed to be a frontrunner in some of the technical categories such as Production and Costume design.

Despite nothing for an Original Song nomination, the songs that are present are undoubtedly earworms. They have been for many years already, and by ending with Defying Gravity there’s no denying the final punch that this first part delivers, perhaps landing it with a strong effect at the end for voters to stay in their mind. These songs are synonymous with the musical, and the film; they come to mind when you think of them and could easily be the case for voters in remembering them and perhaps enjoying them, giving Wicked a boost in this race. There’s also, again, the fact that it’s felt like it’s been around for so long because of the lengthy promotional campaign focusing on the two leads, both nominated for acting awards – Cynthia Erivo for Lead and Ariana Grande for Supporting Actress – which may not quite give them a push in their respective races, although Grande is believed to be a strong competitor against Zoe Saldaña, but could boost the film, if how much has been seen and heard doesn’t backfire.

From one blockbuster to another, Dune: Part Two was widely believed to be a Best Picture frontrunner after the Oscar success and acclaim of the first instalment, people were just waiting for the story to be finished. When this sequel was released to similar acclaim it seemed set for awards glory, all until the confirmation that follow-up Dune: Messiah would be going into production, now likely to film this summer. With that announcement Part Two’s chances diminished, as shown by its nominations.

While the first film managed to pick up an Adapted Screenplay nomination amongst multiple tech nods, this second half of the story has only five nominations, including Picture, each of which are tech-based, and it doesn’t even seem set to win all of those as Dune almost swept them. With a lack of acting, Film Editing, Screenplay and particularly Best Director nod for Denis Villeneuve, a second time for this franchise, Dune: Part Two almost seems to be a case of The Two Towers. The middle film that gets less nominations, picks up one or two wins, while we all wait for the third and, in this case likely, final instalment which goes out with a bang and plenty of gold statues. With no Best Director nod for Villeneuve’s grand scale work, and even Film Editing nomination, it really does seem like this sci-fi epic went from a frontrunner to something of an outsider.

However, the scale and scope are also courtesy of the visual effects and technical departments with have been recognised with nominations. The key details that many have loved and found so absorbing about Dune and the world of Arrakis and beyond still land an effect and have been remembered many months on. While Wicked has had consistent promotion, Dune: Part Two may have lingered in the mind – having been released at the start of March last year, even before the 2024 Oscars ceremony! Some could say that its release date could mean that it was too far away to any longer have a chance or impact, although the idea that you have to release late-October to mid-December to be in with a chance of Best Picture or general Oscar glory is continuing to gradually fade.

In the film’s lead role, and a key push for some for it, is Timothée Chalamet. A man who has starred in seven Best Picture nominees in seven years (often two a year, as is the case this year) and multiple box office successes. His continued presence on the awards circuit, and promotional trails, could well give Dune: Part Two a boost, even if the main point of his promotion is the film that he’s in the running for as Lead Actor, A Complete Unknown. In this case the latter film could well be getting the focus with Dune left somewhat in the background, but the fact that Chalamet prominently stars in both could give the former a boost in voter’s minds, and it perhaps helps that it’s quite a different beast. A big, grander scale cinematic beast that makes the most of the big screen – here’s just hoping the voters have seen it on the big screen rather than on a screener at home.

And from one Chalamet-led film to another, A Complete Unknown is perhaps the most traditional film amongst this year’s Best Picture nominees. The kind of safe and conventional film which benefits most from the preferential ballot. People consistently like it, and therefore agree on it and it gets consistent placements on ballots. It’s the way in which safe and conventional films like CODA and Green Book win Best Picture. And to some extent A Complete Unknown is helped by the fact that it’s a biopic of sorts, with Chalamet challenging Adrien Brody in the Lead Actor race, having won at SAG, for his portrayal as Bob Dylan.

Having not screened at major festivals to give time for editing to make it to a December release in good condition, A Complete Unknown was turned around quickly and it seems to have worked with the acclaim which it has received. Stacking up eight nominations, ticking off all key categories except for Film Editing and even picking up some technical nods. James Mangold was seen as something of a surprise nomination in Best Director, even after his DGA appearance, but the fact that he shows up here shows just how much of a push there is behind the film, in addition to three acting nominations (with Edward Norton and Monica Barbaro joining Chalamet in Supporting Actor and Actress respectively). Mangold also seems to be growing as a favoured director for the Academy with a number of his films finding awards favour over the years, Ford V Ferrari was nominated for Best Picture alongside other nods and even Logan found itself in the Adapted Screenplay race, despite the Academy’s aversion to comic-book adaptations.

And, again, this is the kind of traditional film that does well with a variety of voters, particularly older voters and the good deal of the Academy membership that they make up. Not just in terms of being a biopic, which helps Chalamet’s chances, but the general tone and style of the film as a whole, largely brought about by Mangold – who receives his first Best Director nomination for this film. Due to the last-minute nature in which A Complete Unknown properly came into the race, it was suggested to be a contender due to the basis and star power behind it in the build up to release, the film is perhaps fresher in minds and has only had chance to grow, and may not have reached its peak. And with Chalamet’s surprise win at SAG there is perhaps growing favour towards him and the film. And if he’s playing Bob Dylan in a film about Bob Dylan, and his shift to different styles of music as he went electric, that core performance could have an effect on the film and could, like with the concerts in the film, lead A Complete Unknown to only continue its growing loudness with the cast and crew being the last to take the stage on Oscar night.

If Chalamet wins Best Leading Actor then he will become the youngest actor to win in this category, beating current record holder Adrien Brody by around seven or eight months. Brody also finds himself nominated in this same category this year, 22 years on from his win for The Pianist, and appears to be a frontrunner after having won a number of precursors for his turn in The Brutalist.

Brady Corbet’s film, for which he seems likely to win Best Director, is an epic drama which has picked up ten nominations, including one in each key category and appears to be a frontrunner in quite a few. In some years the idea of a long run-time – in this case just over 3-and-a-half hours – could be said to be a turn away for voters, and maybe the suggestion of an intermission might help or hinder The Brutalist, but it feels that this argument can’t quite be used this year. A number of nominees are around the two-and-a-half hour, or longer, mark this year, with the average run-time being that mark with the combined run-times making for the longest set of Best Picture nominees in Oscar history (totalling 24 hours and 53 minutes).

To bring back the point of the current American Presidential administration, The Brutalist tells a story about immigration and the American Dream, and trauma echoing from the past into the present and the ways in which this is, and isn’t confronted. Much of these themes feel universal to some degree, and we’re all aware of the American Dream, but feel especially backed against a current political background, and could give the film more of a leaning in voters’ favour.

There’s also the feeling of a cinematic achievement here, this sprawling epic with a look and feel on this scale made for $10 million is truly a big achievement, and is part of why Corbet feels like he’s leading the pack for the Best Director Oscar – even if Sean Baker picked up the top prize at the DGA awards for his work on Anora. While the awards haven’t lined up as consistently in recent years there’s still an idea that if you look at Best Picture, Best Director should line up with that, and it had come back into effect in the last year or two with the likes of Oppenheimer and Everything Everywhere All At Once. If Corbet picks up this win then that would likely put The Brutalist in good favour for the top honour of the night, especially when taking into account that aforementioned achievement of it being pulled off, and the emotionally affecting narrative that it tells; much of which is captured in Brody’s performance.

As the season has gone on The Brutalist has found itself consistently in the awards conversation, but not always at the fore. It’s not been pushed towards the back of the pack, but just behind the frontrunners. And maybe that’s what it needs to win. Again, the consistently liked and agreed-upon film that can get high-enough ballot placements that can help it to win Best Picture through that agreement rather than a lot of overall acclaim. Even as frontrunners have changed overtime, The Brutalist has maintained something of a steady position, a key indicator that there’s consistent favour towards it. If voters can get around that considerably longer run-time, less so for the run-time but spending it with the heavy themes that its playing with, then this could very well be the film the Academy names as the best of 2024.

Moving from a story set in and about the past to a thoroughly modern story, Anora has had quite the back-and-forth journey this awards season. Starting out at its festival appearances many were tipping it as an early Best Picture frontrunner. From there, as with most early frontrunners – think most Spielberg and Scorsese films of late; West Side Story, The Fabelmans, Killers Of The Flower Moon, The Irishman – it fell away from the conversation as other titles began to be more discussed, particularly once the nominations were announced. However, this may be the social media vacuum coming into play again because suddenly in came surprise wins at both the Producers and Directors Guild Awards – the Producers Guild being notable for using the same preferential ballot system as the Oscars.

Alongside a win for Original Screenplay at the WGA Awards, with the film a frontrunner in this category at the Oscars, Anora has won a good deal of its precursors. Mikey Madison may be said to be slightly behind Demi Moore in the Lead Actress race, although she managed to pull off a win at the BAFTAs and I don’t think she should be underestimated for being able to pull off the big win, she’s fantastic in the film and that has been recognised. The success at such major precursors with overlap with Academy members suggests that the initial responses that Anora underperformed in terms of nominations – despite ticking all the key boxes, and it wasn’t really going to be competing in that many technical categories anyway – were incorrectly signalling the drop in the films chances.

Even those who have claimed that the Academy are quite sex-averse when it comes to the films they award; let’s remember this is a film following exotic dancer and sex worker Ani discovering her relationships with sex and intimacy, should take a look at more recent Oscar winners – especially after the success of Poor Things last year, particularly Emma Stone’s lead performance; although these are quite different to actually winning Best Picture. The biggest question is: could a film that could be viewed so strongly as a comedy win Best Picture? Comedy, like horror, is another genre that the Academy often tends to stray away from, largely because of just how subjective it can be, or the different impact it has compared to a great drama which can stay with you in another way. Anora certainly seems to have jumped these hurdles with its more serious moments and themes, but there’s still a good chunk of the film that could be seen as playing out as a comedy, whether this chaotic strand turns some people away or not is a different matter.

Certainly Producers and Directors seem to like the film. Yet, alongside the film not quite running away at BAFTA, Madison again still won Best Leading Actress there, Anora didn’t find much love at the SAG awards when it came to winners; although consistent nominations for Yura Borisov in Supporting Actor categories do show some additional love for the film and its subtleties, especially with his largely quiet, perhaps background-held, supporting role. Whether Anora’s success is a bounce-back or a case of the love for it never actually went away there’s clearly a strong backing behind it. Voters are often not bothered by something picking up multiple wins in a season and therefore switching to something else, hence why plenty of films have swept across a season each year. And Anora could continue its string of victories to lead Sean Baker’s latest, Baker himself growing in appearances and love at awards shows after frequently cropping up with wins and nominations at independent award shows for his last few features, to pick up Best Picture on Sunday night.

From films about the past and present to one about the clash between both, and beyond, Conclave could be the film that upsets Anora’s winning streak, and to some extent already has. After a trio of big wins for Anora, Conclave came along and won both Best Film at BAFTA (although the British-leanings of the film, which also picked up Outstanding British Film there, did give it bonus points there and BAFTA haven’t quite aligned with the Academy a great deal in recent years, and Best Ensemble at SAG. It was this latter win which truly shook up the race and once again showed just how unpredictable, and varied, this year’s Best Picture race is.

While much of the supporting cast weren’t able to make it into many Supporting Actor races, with multiple names likely competing against each other and therefore cancelling each other out, Ralph Fiennes fantastic lead performance was able to get a nod. Alongside Isabella Rossellini’s nomination for Supporting Actress, which some say is a career nomination, others a deserving nod despite just 12 minutes of screen-time, and one very clear Oscar clip, while some people might say both are true. Regardless, while Fiennes seems to be the third place contender for many in his race, but could quietly pull ahead, Rossellini is viewed as an outside contender. But, as an ensemble there’s no denying the strength of performances in Conclave, hence the SAG win.

Conclave has each of the key categories ticked off except for Edward Berger in Best Director, having also missed out on a nomination in 2023 for Best Picture frontrunner, also after BAFTA success, All Quiet On The Western Front. And in the likes of Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing it seems to have a clear lead for the win, perhaps helped by its angle as a political thriller against the backdrop of a papal election. While recent events relating to the Pope’s recent ill health won’t impact voting for the film, this news broke after voting closed, what could push it is that story of the new vs the old, conservative vs liberal stances and all playing out in a very secretive and closed-off process. Another traditional film but brilliantly told and with plenty of suspense, which has led it to pick up key notable awards for its various elements, and one or two technical nominations at the Oscars. Conclave has seemingly gradually grown since its festival screenings and could continue to do so, especially after its pick up of wins the later voting has closed in the build-up to the Oscars.

Additionally, it may well have the widest relevance due to its themes and the ways in which it presents them. Likely to connect with international voters, who have increasingly become more influential in recent years not just in Best Picture but across a number of major categories – the most notable example being Anthony Hopkins’ Lead Actor win for The Father over Chadwick Boseman in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – as much as it does American audiences. With these combined elements, as with those in the film itself, Conclave could find itself at the top of the list after enough whittling down of ballots to be elected Best Picture.

And finally, one of the quietest nominees of this year’s awards season, which may have an equally quiet, yet strong, push behind it. While its only other nomination outside of Best Picture is for Adapted Screenplay it managed to pick up a win at the WGA Awards, although a number of screenplays are ineligible here due to WGA rules. Additionally the first-person perspective drama also managed to get a win for director (and co-writer) RaMell Ross for First-Time Theatrical Feature at the DGA Awards.

Nickel Boys, like I’m Still Here, may be viewed as one of this year’s Best Picture nominees that just slipped in as a ninth or tenth nominee, but it is now a serious contender. This means that, roughly, around 550 Academy members likely had it as one of their top two films of 2024 – the films that appear most in the top twos submitted go on to be nominated for Best Picture. Therefore, it likely already has this many first place placements on ballots, plus it’s a film that has a strong, emotionally affecting narrative echoing into the effects of generational trauma closer to the present. Documentary Feature nominee Sugarcane looks into similar themes as Nickel Boys, showing something of a trend amongst nominees which could be seen as something that the Academy in general is leaning towards. This particularly feels like a timely and very relevant film which could once again give it that bigger impact and push when it comes to voting.

There were fears that Nickel Boys, like Sing Sing which failed to get a nomination in this category, had had its awards campaign botched by the studios and distributor backing it meaning that it might not have been seen or heard of enough to land into the race. However, by getting into the Best Picture race it shows that there was a strong enough effect to, again, resonate with enough people to get the nomination, that could echo to more people seeing the film. Especially after the wins it’s picked up here and there along its awards journey, this could easily be another title that people are incorrectly putting aside simply because it hasn’t been around for so long. That being said, part of that does come from that the fact that the For Your Consideration campaign for the film was very muted and quite fumbled, it’s Best Picture appearance can still be seen as something of a surprise, although a welcome one – in my opinion it’s one of the best films in the line-up.

And with the relevance and links to other nominees in other categories, Nickel Boys could certainly find itself having grown its audience, and getting consistent placements on ballots in the key spots it needs to obtain in order to more likely get the final award on Sunday night. It has the backing in at least one other category, and you don’t need a batch of nominations to win Best Picture, even if it could help. And that nomination has a push behind it as shown from other places and ceremonies. It may have quietly entered the race, but that doesn’t mean that Nickel Boys should be pushed aside, it may well have quietly grown since the nominations and over the course of voting and could well find itself with enough support, especially thanks to its emotional punch, to win Best Picture.

And now, onto the main point of this, once again, overlong, poorly-written, overly-repetitive ramble: trying to work out what will win Best Picture. Not through maths, but through simply trying to guess what a group of thousands of people in the film industry have collectively enjoyed the most. This year’s line-up has a wide variety of films and genres and it’s made the race all the more unpredictable, meaning that it feels as if truly anything could win, but there are still some films that the preferential ballot could favour.

With the preferential ballot, this is where the idea that the film that is most agreed upon and liked could win over the one that has had the most vocal praise. You’re looking for the film that is more likely to get consistent second and third place rankings over the most first place placements. This meaning that it’s more likely to get to 51% of first place votes (the film with the lowest number of first place votes each round is removed, the number two for people who voted for that film becoming their new number one until one specific title has the majority of votes) for a film that’s more liked.

In starting to whittle down the nominees there are always those that seem like outsiders. The films that seem to have just slipped in the group of nominees and don’t quite have the push in the race, and throughout the season. Nickel Boys certainly seems like the standout here, and while it’s grown overtime in support I’m Still Here feels as if its chances are better in International Feature, and even Lead Actress, than in Best Picture.

In addition to this, The Substance, despite being likely to find success in other categories, simply feels as if it won’t be watched or included on the ballots of all voters simply because of its body horror nature, which could well also lead to low rankings for a number of Academy members who tend to lean away from the genre.

Meanwhile, when it comes to the blockbusters, Dune: Part Two has simply lost steam since Dune: Messiah was announced and it certainly seems as if voters will wait for that before rewarding a Dune film Best Picture, and Denis Villeneuve a Best Director nod (maybe win), and hope for the same quality. Wicked, on the other hand, doesn’t quite seem to have the same issue in waiting for the second part but doesn’t quite have the emotional response punch that other films have. It leaves an effect with Defying Gravity and its various songs, and has a good deal of love and nominations from various branches, but its entertainment factor leads it (which is no bad thing), but as a whole it feels like a film that’s agreed on but more likely to be placed around the middle of ballots rather than the top three, or maybe even four.

Then there comes the films which each feel as if they could really have a stronger chance of winning, and appear to have been battling it out as frontrunners all season. A Complete Unknown slightly sits outside of this pack, perhaps a bit too traditional amongst the rest of this year’s nominees, it certainly ticks some Academy favourite boxes, but its lack of wins at other ceremonies, and indeed name as a possible winner in the conversation, means that it seems to be assigned similar ballot placements to Wicked, around the middle of the race overall.

And now it’s truly difficult to separate the films and make a confident prediction. Even as I write this I feel all certainty (if there even was any) draining from me as I want to change my mind every few seconds. Yes, even with Emilia Pérez still not eliminated. With the most nominations and so much love from the film industry it still feels as if it could have a good chance of winning one of the biggest honours the film industry has to offer. However, the controversy around it, and comments from key figures involved, have seemingly caused some damage to the film as a Best Picture contender, even if not in all categories it appears in. Even aside from this the film has somewhat faded away in conversation overall as a contender, it does have a divided response (although, again, maybe largely held online, to which voters really don’t pay much attention, and perhaps rightly so), although maybe not as much as some may think based on total nominations and general love from the film industry. Yet, I have a feeling that its conversation even in the film industry (of which I have little to no inside information on) has diminished and moved away to other films, meaning that it has, in the final stages just as it seemed set to win, fallen away from the chance to win Best Picture.

And then there are the final three: Anora, Conclave and The Brutalist. And, to be honest, I may as well flip a coin for my final prediction. However, that would be a bit difficult in deciding between three options unless I counted the rare chance that it land on its edge as a possibility. The Brutalist has had a good deal of love, but it seems that after picking up only Best Motion Picture – Drama at the Golden Globes, a slightly iffy precursor for predicting, it hasn’t quite picked up much at any other precursors, even managing to not pick up anything at SAG. It could still have a strong chance due to its acclaim, but it does feel that over time the conversation around The Brutalist has slightly diminished as a Best Picture winner, even if it seems likely to pick up Lead Actor and Director.

From here, a coin toss can properly be used, and may as well be the way I try to predict, although I’d still want to change my mind, or the side the coin has landed on every five seconds until the final envelope is opened tomorrow night. Anora and Conclave have emerged as the two big contenders at many of the precursors. The former was on its way to a sweep until the latter came along and picked up some notable wins. While BAFTA isn’t quite the best predictor, particularly over the last few years where it’s disagreed with the Oscars on a number of occasions, SAG makes up the largest shared grouping with Academy membership. The actors branch is the biggest in the Academy and if they lean towards Conclave again as Best Picture as they did with Best Ensemble, alongside with the possible push from a more international audience compared to Anora, then it could land the win. Although, Best Ensemble is, of course, an acting award for an ensemble performance rather than an overall film, but there can often be overlap between winners.

And the international point for Conclave can also be made for Anora where the film has also found strong favour from a variety of people. It also notably made a surprise win at the Directors Guild Awards, boosting Sean Baker’s chances in the Best Director category – if he wins there then Anora could very well win Best Picture – and also the film’s win at the Producers Guild Awards which also uses the preferential ballot system, and had most of the same nominees; exchanging I’m Still Here and Nickel Boys for A Real Pain and September 5.

Both films appear to have a similar audience spread and acclaim. If we’re looking at a slightly more modern Academy leaning – the kind that gives Best Picture to Moonlight and The Shape Of Water – then Anora seems likely to win. However, if we’re looking at an Oppenheimer or Nomadland Academy then Conclave seems to have it. The two almost seem to be at a 50/50 split in terms of likelihood. But, Conclave’s rise came after two key wins at BAFTA and SAG, where the latter was more for the ensemble side of things. Anora appeared to be blazing ahead before this, racking up the key guild wins.

And so, to the final prediction (which could change many times between writing this and the ceremony itself, who knows, I could jump back to The Substance, wouldn’t that be something?). But, I believe that the film the Academy will give the 97th Best Picture Oscar to will be Anora.

With another Academy Awards ceremony quickly approaching, and final predictions nearing their last-minute change it’s time for me to waffle about what I would personally vote for out of the nominees in each category. As usual, there will likely be consistent picks of frontrunners with the occasional left field (if that term can even be used when it comes to the 5 (or 10) nominees which have been whittled down to contend for one of the highest honours the film industry has to offer) choice thrown into the mix. So, to just jump right into it, here is who I would vote for at the 97th Academy Awards.

Best Cinematography – The Brutalist
For the most part this is a pretty strong category, but The Brutalist jumps to the front of the pack for me due to the detail that the cinematography adds to the grinding down of Adrien Brody’s character. The way the hopeful light of arriving in America appears to deteriorate over time as he pours his soul and passion into the multi-functional build he’s been commissioned to design. Yet, there’s still an impact from the colour and at times stillness of the film in the latter stages. When searching for marble in the Italian caves or the search through the layers of the building in the final stages – each of these moments looks fantastic with the camera drinking in the surroundings and adding to the designs and construction process, and the central character’s journey alongside it.

Best Costume Design – Wicked
There’s so much going on when it comes to the costumes of Wicked. Yes, this might be me falling into the trap of ‘most’ costume design rather than ‘best’, but then again that could perhaps also apply if I picked Nosferatu (which would likely be my second place pick). Taking some designs from the classic 1939 take on The Wizard Of Oz and spanning them across more locations, and characters, having not seen the stage musical I don’t entirely know how much was translated costume-wise from there. Nonetheless there’s a great variety of detailed and colourful costumes in the One Short Day sequence alone which could warrant this. And, as should be the case, each feels entirely fitting for the characters wearing them. (This feels like a lot of waffle saying nothing, regardless Wicked would be my pick here).

Best Makeup And Hairstyling – The Substance
Not just for the big changes and transformations we see in the final half hour for both Moore and Qualley, but for the gradual changes we see throughout the film. The changes we see in Demi Moore’s character, growing increasingly wild and frantic as she begins to lose her life to Margaret Qualley’s Sue. All as Elisabeth begins to physically lose herself and become unrecognisable with each switch. Yet, in addition to this, the hair and makeup we see throughout the film, particularly when it comes to those we see at the New Year’s Eve broadcast event in the final stages of the film. All adding to the tale of societal and industry-based body and beauty standards which the film tells, critiques and splatters with blood and strange-coloured fluids expelled from someone or something’s body.

Best Production Design – The Brutalist
Maybe in this case I’m being led by the fact that the film revolves around design and architecture, but there’s something truly impactful about the look of the brutalist structure as it grows in height and area. Even during the building process the building has this towering, haunting nature to it – from the deep foundations to the endless scaffolding. Yet, even outside of the sequences directly seeing the construction there’s a lot to admire about the general design of The Brutalist. The scale that it achieves and just how much it shows on just $10 million. It places you directly into the post-war landscapes and structures in which the events play out in, from run-down a dirty work yards and rooms to the more lavish estate of Guy Pearce’s character, including the initial work we see undertaken to put together a library for him. The design of The Brutalist has a core and daunting effect, working hand-in-hand with the aforementioned cinematography to make a strong, visceral and cinematic look helping to push the themes and emotions at the heart of the film.

Best Sound – Dune: Part Two
A tough decision between this and The Wild Robot – which it could be argued had the more difficult job of doing everything from scratch and alongside the animation. Dune: Part Two gets my pick here for the controlled chaos of the sound in its grand scale action sequences, and even the close-up fights involving Austin Butler’s Feyd-Rautha – the sound of the various elements at play; weapons, protective armour, a shouting audience, each increasing the atmosphere of the moment in a grand arena yet still capturing the close nature of the fight – with a much closer nature in the final duel which closes the film. All while still having the loud machine-like noise of spacecraft various other kinds of ‘vehicles’ (definitely not the right word), and the explosions which often accompany them, throughout the film.

Best Visual Effects – Dune: Part Two
In much the same way as this was the case for the first film, the visual effects in Dune: Part Two blend in seamlessly with the desert planet at the centre of it, and the other worlds that we occasionally see as well. They help to create the scale and make some of the best sequences – such as the much-discussed sandworm riding scene, or the aforementioned large-scale action scenes where we see the Fremen attacking large carriers and spice collectors. The visual effects enhance the world of Arrakis, and those beyond it, and create a believable and authentic world. They simply look brilliant.

Best Original Song – Like A Bird from Sing Sing
The Best Original Song category is often one of the most shambolic at the Oscars, with a number of notorious snubs over the years. For every I’m Just Ken and Naatu Naatu there’s a lack of an Upbeat Inspirational Song About Life, Drive It Like You Stole It or A World Of Your Own. This year the omission of The Wild Robot’s Kiss The Sky from the category is a standout snub, alongside for some Harper And Will Go West from documentary Will And Harper (and dare I mention Vengeance Most Fowl’s The Gnome Song?). However, of the nominated songs, Like A Bird was for some the one that seemed most unlikely to get in, but I’m rather glad that it did. I’ve stated in previous years that I don’t really know how to talk about music (although if this piece has shown anything so far I probably don’t really know how to talk about film either), it’s more a case of whether I like it or I don’t. And I rather liked the gentle and soulful nature of Like A Bird, it’s simply for me the song that stands out as the best in a somewhat weak category – this sounds like damning with faint praise, the song is great.

Best Original Score – The Brutalist
There’s a haunting quality to the music of The Brutalist which echoes throughout the film. Something quietly emotional and capturing the tragedy of the past echoing into the present. It both compliments the film wonderfully and works on its own as a great piece of music too. Even the intermission is worth sitting through for the brief bursts of piano which crop up throughout it, echoing into the second half. The Wild Robot and Conclave both have great scores, too, but Daniel Blumberg’s score for The Brutalist captures the emotional tragedy which hangs over the film and the characters, and is generally a great score and piece/s of music.

Best Film Editing – The Brutalist
Conclave could very easily have got the mention here for telling a tight 2-hour thriller, but at just over three-and-a-half hours long and not feeling like it – with two equal halves and an intermission in-between – The Brutalist’s editing makes what could be a very heavy, and perhaps lengthy, film pass by much more easily. Yes, there are scenes which they could remove and make a film an hour, or more, shorter, but they somehow work in the grander scheme of the narrative, adding to the film and the characters without affecting the flow. It’s also a film which allows its silences and pauses, letting them sink in and effectively so. So much of what is allowed could so easily backfire and push things into drawn-out territory. But it doesn’t, The Brutalist manages to get away with it somehow because of the way in which it’s edited and pieced together.

Best Documentary Feature – No Other Land
The best categories at the Oscars often tend to be International and Documentary Feature, they tend to hold the hidden gems. This year there are some great films in the Documentary Feature race, but the one which truly lands the biggest, most devastating emotional impact is No Other Land. A hard watch in every sense of the word, alongside its tragic story of a Palestinian village being destroyed by occupying Israeli soldiers it manages to tell a story of a growing friendship between Palestinian and Israeli reporters Basel Adra and Yuval Abraham. Urgent, devastating, harrowing and wonderfully constructed in its use of first-hand footage from the pair of journalists at the scene this is another case of the Oscars leading me to a film that if I had seen it last year it would have undoubtedly been in my top ten of the year – as was the case with last year’s deserving winner in this category 20 Days In Mariupol. No Other Land is a truly fantastic piece of documentary and journalistic filmmaking which puts the emphasis on the people in the village, their lives, experiences and displacement.

Best International Feature – The Seed Of The Sacred Fig
Another category where there are some truly great hidden gems, and for once thanks to release dates (and festivals) I’ve managed to see all the nominated films before the ceremony. The Seed Of The Sacred Fig would get my vote here as a film that’s in touch with its activism and just what it’s showing. Especially from the perspective of its two young leads, the way they see the truth of the world around them on social media leading them to growing activism, despite their father’s occupation as an investigative judge for the Iranian regime – asked to sign death warrants without investigation. Yes, things might feel a little overlong in the third act, but there’s still a great film here – made in secret after a ban from the Iranian government from making films – one with a good deal of tension and overhanging threat as the truths of the world are uncovered thanks to characters who, much like the film, have their finger increasingly on the pulse of the society they’re living in.

Best Animated Feature – Memoir Of A Snail
For so long I would have been adamant that Inside Out 2 would have got my vote here, and that it would win the actual award on Oscar night – which now seems set to go to The Wild Robot. However, Adam Elliott’s feature follow-up to 2009’s wonderful Mary And Max is full of just as much care for its characters and the tragedies, and uplifts, that they go through in their lives – particularly central figure Grace, voiced by Sarah Snook. I started tearing up in the first few minutes, and spent the remainder of the film on the verge of tears thanks to the understanding which goes into creating the characters and story at hand, all with an effective sense of humour which has self-awareness and brings a sense of joy to the proceedings. I just loved it and what it reflects – as was also the case with Inside Out 2 and it’s sublime representation of anxiety. Which I wrote about in a piece for Movie Marker last year.

Best Original Screenplay – Anora
While it might not quite be the bulk of it, once things kick off in Anora at the approach of the second hour there’s a wonderfully laid out barrage of chaos as the characters race around Brooklyn trying to find Mark Eydelshteyn’s Ivan. Even beforehand the extended home invasion sequence is full of laugh-out-loud chaos as Mikey Madison’s title character loudly bites back with swear-laden fury while those who have made their way in after hearing of her and Ivan’s marriage ask “rich people don’t have ice?” From here there’s a brilliantly scripted tale full of laughs, and there’s plenty of wit on display throughout much of the first hour as the central relationship is built up and Ani finds herself in a new world; just starting on her journey of the differences between love, intimacy and sex. All tracked throughout Sean Baker’s screenplay with acknowledgement from the film, but not always the characters until the end.

Best Adapted Screenplay – Conclave
There’s a lot I love about the script for Sing Sing and its open, frank conversations about mental health and healthy and unhealthy performance Conclave – at this moment – just gets the edge for me with the way its screenplay tells a tight, detailed thriller with plenty of twists and turns all whilst following the election of a new Pope. Completely subverting how the idea sounds on paper and making for a film of escalating tension with a new reveal around each corner, and its own sense of occasional, fitting wit amongst the battle to become the new head of the Catholic church, and that between the more conservative and liberal stances amongst the various cardinals; and indeed those which they are internally experiencing – such as Stanley Tucci’s doubts as to whether he wants the papacy or Ralph Fiennes’ crisis of faith. All wrapped up in a script and story which manages to be consistently suspenseful even on re-watches.

Best Supporting Actor – Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice
Jeremy Strong is truly the standout in this category for me. Even against Sebastian Stan’s Donald Trump – nominated in the Leading Actor category – he manages to steal the show as a slimy Roy Cohn introducing Trump to a world of power and influence, and how to get ahead in it. Yet, even after all the ruthlessness we see displayed by Cohn a small layer of sympathy is introduced in the closing stages of his arc in the film, pushed aside by his former apprentice outside of expensive clubs and offices and out on the street as a shadow of his former self. It’s an excellent transition which is all part of an amazing performance from Strong who truly excels in the role and gives one of the best supporting performances of last year.

Best Supporting Actress – Isabella Rossellini in Conclave
In all honesty, there’s not really a performance in this category that particularly stands out for me. They’re all good turns, but there isn’t quite an overwhelming standout for me as there is in the other acting categories. And while Rossellini’s nomination has proved divisive, with many saying her screen-time doesn’t warrant it – Beatrice Straight won in this category for her five-minute performance in Network, Judi Dench for eight minutes in Shakespeare In Love and even Anne Hathaway for a turn in Les Misérables largely confined to the first 25-minutes (albeit whilst singing a shattering rendition of I Dreamed A Dream) – her key ‘Oscar clip’ moment isn’t quite why I’ve picked her. Her role in Conclave may be minimal in run-time, and for some overall impact on the story, but there’s a lot to like about her various reactions, those internal which gradually leak out into her physical and verbal responses, to the battles raging on to become the new Pope which gives the film overall a big, understated push. Perhaps this also comes down to having seen Conclave a couple of times, and realising just how much she appears in the film, even if very briefly each time. But it is an enjoyable performance with plenty of quiet subtle beats to compliment the ensuing drama at the fore, and capture nervousness, and influence, amongst those not even voting for the new Pope.

Best Leading Actor – Ralph Fiennes in Conclave
Fiennes is truly brilliant in Conclave. A quiet, unshowy performance packed with so many subtleties. He wears his character’s crisis of faith, and burden of having to arrange the papal election, on both his face and stance. Concealing so much as he finds himself caught in the middle of the push and pull of the various factions of cardinals, trying to maintain calm and order as new details come to light; this is one of Fiennes’ best performances to date. Conclave very much revolves around him and the force of his, again quiet, performance captures things perfectly and brings the audience into this secretive world full of further secrets and twists.

Best Leading Actress – Mikey Madison in Anora
As a character, Anora is a force of nature and much of that is thanks to Mikey Madison’s performance. Relentless in the way she fights, and hurls f-bombs and those who dare to try to break up her marriage, the deeper core of the character begins to physically and emotionally come through in the developments of the third act. Madison is truly fantastic from showing the day-to-day attitude of an exotic dancer and sex worker to the whirlwind spiral of events once her work and life take the turn into the marriage. Fiery and adamant, again, Madison, like her character, is truly a force of nature blazing across the screen and truly selling herself and the film as a whole. Capturing the humour, and absurdities, in the escalating, racing daze of a search and the realisations and barriers of Ani when it comes to her journey of her own relationships with sex and intimacy.

Best Director – Brady Corbet for The Brutalist
The way in which all of the technical elements of The Brutalist are brought together is truly fantastic. Made on around $10 million there’s such a grand scale and scope to the look and feel of the film, all brought together by Brady Corbet’s gentle yet precise direction. A similar sense of scope is brought to the themes and narrative of the film as well, captured in the way Corbet brings out the personal angles and stories of the characters in what’s around them, and indeed the performances and developments of the film as a whole. The point where I truly realised just how much of an impact Corbet’s direction was having on me, and the film, is a long shot showing a train derailment. Focusing on the detail as a whole and yet also seeming to demonstrate a sense of detachment running hand-in-hand with the emotional response. And that’s the key factor of the elements of The Brutalist, they all work hand-in-hand. Complimenting and lifting each other up. Shining through in Corbet’s observant and truly brilliant direction.

Best Picture
With Best Picture being voted for via preferential ballot, as in previous years, I’ll list what my ranking would look like (from strongest to weakest – the only film out of this year’s nominees that I’m not really a fan of is Emilia Pérez) with a few sentences about my number one choice below that.

1. Conclave
2. Nickel Boys
3. Anora
4. The Substance
5. The Brutalist
6. I’m Still Here
7. A Complete Unknown
8. Wicked
9. Dune: Part Two
10. Emilia Pérez

As mentioned above, Conclave is a really well told political thriller taking place across the process to elect a new Pope. Filled with twists and turns all unfolding in quiet revelations and secretive discussions in silenced corridors in the middle of the night it plays out as a consistently suspenseful piece of work which works just as well on re-watches. The layered performances from a great ensemble cast add to the details of a quiet battle which grows increasingly loud in heated confrontations, all while the atmosphere attempts to remain calm for the sake of the process, cardinals, tradition and history of the papacy and elections. It’s amazing just how much subtle detail is packed into the performances, script and overall film, all bubbling to eventually come together amongst the various co-existing themes for a film about tradition and modernity, conservative and liberal stances and indeed what it means to be the head of the Catholic church.