2026’s awards season may have seemed to go on for longer than usual, but it’s rewarded us with one of the most unpredictable sets of races for quite some time. It seems as if trying to predict what will win in multiple categories at this year’s Oscars could be more easily done via coin toss, or rather dice roll.
Yet, here I am once again attempting to try and predict what will win at another Academy Awards ceremony (with my choices likely changing shortly after I post this, and again just before the winner is announced).
Best Cinematography – One Battle After Another
The first of multiple categories that may as well go down to a coin toss between Sinners and One Battle After Another. I wouldn’t be surprised if Sinners took the win here, but One Battle After Another has won some notable cinematography awards so far (including at the ASC – American Society of Cinematographers – awards), and also has that hill-based car chase sequence, meaning I think it’ll just clinch it.
Best Costume Design – Frankenstein
As I tend to always say this early on in my predictions, often with the technical categories you’re looking for ‘most’ rather than ‘best’; although sometimes they can overlap. Frankenstein has plenty of strong visual detail on display, as you’d expect from a Guillermo del Toro film, and all sorts of period costumes are particularly prominent here.
Best Makeup And Hairstyling – Frankenstein
Look at the transformation of Jacob Elordi into The Creature alone. It stands out amongst all the other nominees, two of which may not have been seen as much as the others, and makes Frankenstein seem like the obvious win here.
Best Production Design – Frankenstein
Pretty much for the same reason as the Costume Design prediction, there’s just so much scale on display in Frankenstein when it comes to the visual detail of the world that’s been created on-screen. It really doesn’t seem as if any of the other nominees are likely to creep up on it here.
Best Casting – Sinners
This is the first time this award has been given out at the Oscars, so it’s not entirely clear what kind of film will be awarded here, or how the voting membership of the Academy is going to judge ‘casting’. While I don’t think it’ll be seen as an ensemble prize, the ensemble that’s in Sinners likely won’t go amiss when it comes to leading it to a win. Also note the praise that’s gone towards so many of the performances in the film, and the size of the cast and it seems as if this could well be the first film to win this particular Oscar.
Best Sound – F1
I’m really in two minds about this one. Largely because I feel like F1 might be ‘too obvious’ and that the idea of going with ‘most sound’ in this case is wrong. Sinners could easily pull off a win here, or maybe even Sirāt, which wouldn’t surprise me; it is after all the film where the sound is most prominent in the narrative. But, of course in F1’s racing sequences the sound of everything that’s happening is crucial, and there’s certainly a lot of noise that I think could just carry it over the line to a win in this category (although this is certainly one that I’m not entirely certain on).
Best Visual Effects – Avatar: Fire And Ash
See title of nominee
Best Original Song – Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
This is another category where I’m really uncertain, because I Lied To You from Sinners has some real weight behind it. Plus, it leads one of the most acclaimed scenes of the year. Yes, Golden was, and continues to be, a huge, huge hit on hard rotation in many places across the world, it is an absolute tune, but Best Original Song doesn’t always go to the most popular track, it sometimes goes to the one people are most aware of – see No Time To Die winning over I’m Just Ken. Yet, sometimes we do get a Naatu Naatu winning, and there’s no denying that there’s a strong awareness of Golden and KPop Demon Hunters, which is a frontrunner in the Animated Feature race. I Lied To You could easily win here, and I’d predict that this race is possibly one of the closest at this year’s Oscars, but (at least at time of uncertainly writing this) I have a feeling that the joy and global sensation of Golden will just pull ahead for the win.
Best Original Score – Sinners
I’ve seen very few comments that Ludwig Göransson has already won two Oscars in the recent past (for his Black Panther and Oppenheimer scores), and this doesn’t overly seem to be something that people pay much attention to in technical categories unless names are especially prominent (like John Williams became years ago in this category, and Göransson may be nearing). Regardless, there’s so much character in the score for Sinners, and the music is so key to the film. It’s a film very much about music, embracing different styles and instruments throughout. Plus, it’s just a great score that I can see quite easily see leading Göransson to his third Oscar in his third Score nomination (perhaps his fourth Oscar if he manages to also win Original Song).
Best Film Editing – One Battle After Another
While F1 could attract a good number of votes with its flashier, more prominent editing – the Academy has been known to go for it on a number of occasions such as Ford V Ferrari and Bohemian Rhapsody’s wins, compared to something like Sound Of Metal taking home this award – this does seem to be another that One Battle After Another has a good track record of winning. Sinners doesn’t quite seem to pose as much competition here, although it also won at the ACE (American Cinema Editors) Eddie Awards in the drama category with One Battle taking the comedy award. Yet, despite the possible draw that F1 could have, especially with its own race sequences, the barrelling energy and chases at hand in One Battle After Another (again, like with Cinematography, see the hill car chase) will likely see it also win at the Oscars.
Best Documentary Short – All The Empty Rooms
Every year I promise myself that I’m going to get better at looking at the nominated short films to get a better grasp on the categories, and also just watch more short films (which I’m quite poor at doing generally). Every year I fail to do so (despite a number of them being made available to watch for free on YouTube this year – my aim is to, while it might be almost a tad late, watch a couple of the apparent frontrunners before the ceremony). And so, once again, my predictions in these categories are largely based on what others have said, and to some extent ‘vibes’. While The Devil Is Busy could also create strong resonance through its emotional impact on voters with its themes and subject, All The Empty Rooms, which looks at the bedrooms of children who lost their lives in school shootings, appears to have a slight upper hand.
Best Live-Action Short – Two People Exchanging Saliva
There’s quite a bit of love for The Singers in this category, and A Friend Of Dorothy has proved to be quite a crowdpleaser, but it seems that there’s something of a claimed cinematic edge for Two People Exchanging Saliva in both its style and the way it looks. It feels as if this is a category that could go in a couple of directions – plus, The Singers has the push of Netflix, even if others are available on YouTube and all likely on the Academy viewing platform for voters to watch and access. However, partly based on what I’ve seen elsewhere, and to some extent a pure unreliable feeling, I’m saying Two People Exchanging Saliva for this category.
Best Animated Short Film – Butterfly
Without the presence of any particularly big names here, and they don’t always win (or get nominated as is pointed out when the only Disney short people have heard of doesn’t appear in the nominations), Butterfly seems like the likely winner in this category. There’s been a lot of attention directed towards The Girl Who Cried Pearls, which a good number of people are predicting could win, but I think the true-life story that Butterfly tells could help it along. It’s the kind of thing that connects particularly with the short film categories, look at 2024’s winner in this category War Is Over! Butterfly tells the story of French Jewish Olympic swimmer and Auschwitz survivor Alfred Nakache. It’s received a good deal of praise already and that could well continue towards it winning the Oscar.
Best Documentary Feature – The Perfect Neighbour
Perhaps one of the more notable titles in this category, and one that may well have the most impact with voters because of its use of almost entirely police bodycam and CCTV footage to follow the build-up to neighbourhood tragedy, and the events following. Maybe there’s a chance that Mr Nobody Against Putin could take the win here, both with its messaging and potential echoes with voters across the globe, and there might be a quiet power to The Alabama Solution. But, it does feel like The Perfect Neighbour may have been more widely seen (again, with the help of Netflix who have a good track record with this category) and could get the win. But, this is definitely another category that I don’t think is as locked in as many others would suggest it is.
Best International Feature – Sentimental Value
The Secret Agent could very easily pull off a surprise I’m Still Here win in this category, it’s also nominated for Best Picture like that film was, and Sentimental Value is. In fact, with the acclaim that’s gone to each of the films in this category (and how tough the competition seemed to be to get nominated, many will point to No Other Choice missing out and yet it still feeling like every film here deserves to be there) I’d like to think that any of them could win – although it does seem to be between Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent. I’ve gone for Sentimental Value largely because of its appearance in more categories outside of International Feature, and the fact that at one point it was a Best Picture frontrunner. Yes, this was somewhat the case for Emilia Pérez last year, but Sentimental Value definitely doesn’t have the controversy or divisiveness that surrounded that films awards campaign, and it doesn’t have the same level of nomination, either. Plus, a film about the power of film and art may have something of a boost here. Again, this could slightly go either way, although I think less so than the fight between Sinners and One Battle After Another in most categories. I’d say Sentimental Value likely has this win.
Best Animated Feature – KPop Demon Hunters
For a good while I was saying that Zootropolis 2 shouldn’t be underestimated, or perhaps rather KPop Demon Hunters overestimated, as it could manage to get a win here, and slightly with the help of the Disney label. But, over time it’s become apparent that the global phenomenon that is KPop Demon Hunters, and its soundtrack, is the one that shouldn’t be underestimated. It’s definitely got the win here.
Best Original Screenplay – Sinners
With the push that’s been behind this film, the fact it’s a Best Picture frontrunner and wins at WGA and BAFTA, plus the fact that it’s a very original horror script with a brain clearly in its head to weave its social themes in it seems very likely Sinners will win here.
Best Adapted Screenplay – One Battle After Another
Much like Sinners has won plenty of Original Screenplay awards so far this awards season, One Battle After Another has won a good deal of Adapted awards alongside it. It feels like the main threat here could be Hamnet with the others somewhat trailing behind in the race, but One Battle After Another seems to have this one almost locked.
Best Supporting Actor – Sean Penn in One Battle After Another
For a little while after the film was released Sean Penn seemed to be almost certain to win the Oscar. However, when Stellan Skarsgård started to show more of a force for his turn in Sentimental Value, and the fact Penn has already won two Oscars, the race started to get more competitive. That’s still the case with it feeling like this, and three of the four acting categories, could go to anyone nominated, however after winning at both SAG and BAFTA without having really campaigned (some have pointed out the lack of Sean Penn style speeches have also helped him along the way) shows the strength of his performance in the eyes of possible voters. I think he could well be on the way to his third Oscar.
Best Supporting Actress – Amy Madigan in Weapons
The only problem here is that this is the sole nomination for Weapons, and it’s rare for someone to win an Oscar and be the only nomination the film has. Yes, Weapons was very well received, particularly Madigan’s performance, and she won at SAG (which has the biggest overlap with Academy votership), but then again hers is quite a showy performance that SAG like to go for. I don’t think that Wunmi Mosaku quite has the push the others have claimed she does after her BAFTA win, I think there was a slight home-turf twist there, although that’s not to diminish her win or performance. And Teyana Taylor has long been discussed as still being in competition despite not having been entirely active in the conversation for a good while. The Sentimental Value pairing of Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas aren’t quite splitting each others votes and just seem to not be overly included in the conversation, although Lilleaas could genuinely pull off a quiet win on par with her performance in the film. However, Madigan is one of the most talked about performances here and certainly has had an effect when it comes to the horror of the film she’s in (even if I’m not the biggest fan of the film, and don’t entirely get this level of acclaim for her performance). Roll a dice and you’re more likely to get a better prediction for this category.
Best Leading Actor – Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another
For months I said that I thought Leonardo DiCaprio was going to win his second Oscar for his performance in this film. The more awards season has gone on the more I’ve been shown that I’m likely wrong, and I very probably am. I’ve changed my mind recently and yet somehow come back to DiCaprio. Yes, Michael B. Jordan won at SAG, and seems to have a lot of favour in the Academy, alongside playing two roles in Sinners. I don’t quite think Timothée Chalamet has the push and support to get him the Oscar he so clearly wants this time around. Look, Jordan is very probably going to win this and should be my prediction, yet I have a slight feeling that he and Chalamet could cancel each other out. But, more importantly, each year I’ve got one prediction that’s very clearly wrong, and for now I’m making that DiCaprio winning his second Lead Actor Oscar. Partly out of stubbornness, partly out of hope. Either way, he probably won’t, but I’ll make it my prediction in a race that could still be won by Ethan Hawke or Wagner Moura.
Best Leading Actress – Jessie Buckley in Hamnet
Buckley has proved to be the only consistent winner in the acting categories this awards season. She’s won pretty much all major precursors for her performance in Hamnet and that doesn’t show any sign of slowing down for the Oscars. It’s hers to lose.
Best Director – Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
I think this will be one of the closest races at this year’s Oscars. While Anderson could win this with a slight ‘legacy’ angle that point has diminished as Sinners has continued to surge ahead and do brilliantly over the course of awards season. Ryan Coogler could very easily, and deservingly, win here and I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s not much of a gap between him and Anderson, especially with how much is brought together in Sinners. And, I was wrong here last year when I thought Brady Corbet’s direction of The Brutalist would win over Sean Baker’s of Anora – although still predicting Anora’s Best Picture win. We could easily see a Director-Picture win this year, just as easily as the same film winning both. And I don’t think in this case there’s one that may have more favour with international voters than the other. But, I have a feeling that with his DGA and PGA wins, and even BAFTA victory, Paul Thomas Anderson may just have the edge for this category.
Best Picture – One Battle After Another
It’s Sinners vs One Battle After Another again. And I genuinely wouldn’t be surprised if Sinners wins here. The preferential ballot is very, very likely to favour both with likely consistent first, second and third placements for both with, I would guess, very little amounts. What I’m basing this on is One Battle After Another’s wins at DGA, PGA (which also votes via preferential ballot), BAFTA, etc. Yes, Sinners won at SAG, but that could be viewed as the ensemble cast performance award it is (which certainly suits Sinners), but that award is still seen, and has been plenty of times in the past, as a key indicator.
Regardless, with One Battle After Another’s previous wins it should likely be at the top of a good number of ballots, and I think just a few more than Sinners may be which could give it a head start when it comes to nominees being whittled down in order to get one to the 51% mark that achieves it the Best Picture win. It’s just a matter of how consistent its appearances in the two or three spots below will be, and I think it might be enough to just lead it to one of the closest Best Picture wins (in a generally very close Oscars overall) we’ve had in quite some time.
To read my stupidly long, repetitive and poorly-written ramble about the chances of each of this year’s Best Picture nominees in winning the top prize at this year’s Oscars click to read my 2026 What Will Win Best Picture? piece.
Just A Little Bit Random 