With the Best Picture race looking to go in any direction, the same could be said for many of the other categories at this year’s Academy Awards. This year sees a number of close races where there’s a good chance that frontrunners could cancel each other out or an apparent surprise could quietly slip into the lead and win on the night.
But, before the winners are unveiled later tonight, here are my final (until they change five minutes after posting this) predictions for who and what will win in each category at this year’s Oscars.
Best Cinematography – The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two could possibly slip ahead here, repeating the first film’s win in this category, but The Brutalist seems to have the edge over the rest of the nominees here. With the film a possible frontrunner in Best Production Design, and good production design sometimes being confused for cinematography, the way the various landscapes are captured, particularly amongst the developing construction, seems to put it ahead in this race. Quite simply: the film looks great and that seems to be a point that people very much agree upon.
Best Costume Design – Wicked
As usual in most categories, particularly the technicals, replace ‘best’ with ‘most’ and you’re more likely to find the winner. Wicked has a grand display of costumes throughout and it appears to have the upper hand over the other nominees here due to the upfront and clear costume design. Nosferatu seems to be the runner-up here, but with only a couple of technical nominations it has something of a disadvantage. Wicked simply seems to be the kind of film, and costumes, that are more likely to make it to a win here.
Best Makeup And Hairstyling – The Substance
It genuinely feels as if anything (apart from Emilia Pérez) could win in this category. But, while the body horror element of The Substance could put it a disadvantage due to not being watched by all voters, despite a Best Picture nomination, it does perhaps have the most upfront examples for this category which work their way into the narrative. While this is also the case for other nominees, such as A Different Man, The Substance may well have the edge because of just how much change we see in the performances, particular Demi Moore, over the course of the film. Plus, Moore is a frontrunner for Leading Actress and often Makeup And Hairstyling will pair up with one of the acting winners. I wouldn’t be surprised if any of the other films (apart from Emilia Pérez) manages to take the win in this category, though.
Best Production Design – Wicked
I really want to say that The Brutalist is likely to win here, mostly because I think it should win, but it seems to be the runner-up in a category that I think is much closer than most people seem to think. But while the idea of architecture and design is more key to the narrative of The Brutalist, Wicked perhaps has the grander examples that are most noticeable through the towering structures and colours of the various buildings and locations seen throughout.
Best Sound – Dune: Part Two
Another race where it feels some nominees are being underestimated, namely The Wild Robot, and even A Complete Unknown, but it feels as if this is one that Dune: Part Two will quite easily get. Once again creating the soundscape of the world of Arrakis, and beyond, and the roars, crashes and bangs of explosions against giant spacecraft. The detail that goes into creating the sound of the world just as much as the look of it feels like this will be one of the few repeat wins tonight for Dune.
Best Visual Effects – Dune: Part Two
In a category heavy with monkeys and sci-fi, Dune: Part Two, for the same reasons as its Sound win, feels a safe bet here. Again, quite simply because of the highly cinematic, and believable, world that the visual effects in question create.
Best Original Song – El Mal from Emilia Pérez
Emilia Pérez’s chances may have fallen away in some categories after the controversial (and downright racist) comments of its lead star and director, but Zoe Saldaña’s Supporting Actress chances seem to have gone unhurt. And with this song being largely left to her character it might have less of a dip, even if it ever had one. But, the song in general has been a frontrunner in this category for some time, and has still had wins at other ceremonies. The main competition appears to be the returning force of Diane Warren, having written the music and lyrics for The Journey from The Six Triple Eight, this could very well finally be her year after 16 total nominations (and one each year for the last eight years). But, whether the song has the strength to win in an albeit quite weak category is a different matter. I still think that this is quite likely to be El Mal’s, especially as it seems to have been quite a standout song in a musical film voters will have seen compared to one from a film that there’s a chance that may not have even heard of.
Best Original Score – The Brutalist
Conclave could sneak up and grab the win here, but The Brutalist appears to have the upper-hand through the build-up and general discussion around this category. It’s also a score that’s very present throughout the film which could give it a boost as well.
Best Film Editing – Conclave
A tense thriller with plenty of well-tracked twists and turns all told over the course of just 2-hours, that feels like a strong winner for this category. If Anora’s love spreads further from the major categories it has strong chances of winning in that could lead to a win here, and maybe the fact that The Brutalist gets away with a three-and-a-half hour run-time could be commended, alongside just what it packs in in that time. But, simply for how concisely yet effectively Conclave tells its story and establishes its details, I’m pretty confident in predicting it to win here.
Best Documentary Short – I Am Ready, Warden
As usual, I’m quite out of the loop when it comes to the short categories, so to some extent my predictions are informed by those of other people and general consensuses online. But, with the idea of death row and the death sentence becoming increasingly prominent in the US and the story that’s being told in I Am Ready, Warden it seems as if it’ll likely connect with Academy members and get the win here – although with this reasoning Death By Numbers could very well win for its deeply emotional focus. While, Netflix’s The Only Girl In The Orchestra could prove a challenger this seems like it could grab the win.
Best Live-Action Short – The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
It feels as if there’s a push for each of the nominees in this category, but I’ve gone for The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent for much the same reason as I predicted I Am Ready, Warden: a sense of relevance. Not just for the US but the direction people feel the world is going in, and the story that’s being told over the 13-minute run-time. It appears to be a short that many people have responded to and may just have the bit of an extra backing compared to the other shorts in this category to pick up the Oscar.
Best Animated Short – Yuck!
As with Live-Action Short it feels like there’s a good backing behind each of the nominees here. And while Wander To Wonder could sneak up and take the win here, Yuck! appears to be the popular choice (or at least one of them). But, Yuck! seems to be the short that might have the widest appeal due to its more straightforward nature. But, again, anything could win here and my predictions in the short film categories should be taken with a mountain of salt (or just simply ignored).
Best Documentary Feature – No Other Land
I’m really not certain about this one. No Other Land has only had a very small release in the US, and there are many saying that its basis is enough to turn a lot of voters away. Porcelain War (the only nominee I’ve not been able to see yet due to no UK release as of yet) has also appeared as a winner and nominee at a number of big ceremonies in recent weeks. However, I think that the importance, and harrowing nature, of No Other Land is going to be enough to connect with voters and lead the film to a rightful win in this category, providing that enough voters will have been able to see it – of course there will be screeners and ways for members to watch the film, so the lack of release may not damage it as much.
Best International Feature – Emilia Pérez
With the growth that I’m Still Here has had in recent weeks, and the controversy around Emilia Pérez, there’s a chance that this once favourite could easily have dipped away from the lead in this particular race. However, with 13 nominations, and a lot of love across the film industry, I think that Emilia Pérez is still likely to get this win, even if it isn’t as much of a frontrunner as it once was.
Best Animated Feature – The Wild Robot
Inside Out 2 seemed like the clear winner when it was first released, and even for quite some time after, but once awards season properly kicked in The Wild Robot appeared to take the lead and has had a lot of conversation around it, and picked up a couple of key wins along the way. Add in the layered story about parenthood that the film tells, which could connect well with a number of voters, and the fact it may be one of the more widely seen nominees in this category (and its two additional nominations in tech categories where it has some backing) and The Wild Robot feels like a clear winner here.
Best Original Screenplay – Anora
Anora has picked up a good deal of Original Screenplay awards throughout this awards season, and with it being a frontrunner for Best Picture it seems almost locked in to win here. Especially with the details that come forward in the final scenes, and the humour that it’s managed to strike with a wide audience.
Best Adapted Screenplay – Conclave
As with Anora in Original Screenplay, Conclave has picked up a number of Adapted Screenplay awards this season and is a frontrunner for Best Picture. It also stands out amongst the rest of the nominees in this category which don’t quite have the same push of backing as screenplays in the impact that they’ve had. Conclave here also gains the same points that it does for its likely Film Editing win with the various well-tracked twists and turns throughout.
Best Supporting Actor – Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain
Kieran Culkin has pretty much won every single precursor under the sun for his performance in this film. He’s almost guaranteed the win.
Best Supporting Actress – Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez
Much like Culkin, Saldaña has won many precursor awards, even after the controversy surrounding the film and some of the figures involved in it. She seems pretty comfortably set to win the Oscar, particularly after having won at SAG where a good deal of people were predicting a win for Ariana Grande after the nomination support for Wicked at the ceremony. When Saldaña won there it seemed pretty clear that she was on track for the Oscar.
Best Leading Actor – Adrien Brody in The Brutalist
While Timothée Chalamet may have pulled ahead with a surprise win at SAG, Brody has won a good deal of awards in the build-up to the Oscars. But, what we have is a similar situation to when Austin Butler and Brendan Fraser were battling out for this award a couple of years ago. A biographical performance of a very well known singer, with Chalamet doing his own singing in the film, and a very physical performance which you can see the effort being put in to. I have a feeling that Brody may just have the edge of Chalamet because of the physical side of the performance and the directions the film takes his character in regards to past traumas and the emotional waves that he creates and rides as part of his journey, and performance.
Best Leading Actress – Demi Moore in The Substance
While Mikey Madison may have won this award at BAFTA, alongside a couple of other places, for her role in Anora, Demi Moore surged ahead from an outside position to the frontrunner shortly after a win at the Golden Globes, boosted even further by a SAG win. Madison could still get a win here, or maybe somehow the pair will cancel each other out (albeit with quite different roles and performances) and Fernanda Torres pulls ahead and wins for her role in I’m Still Here, however Moore’s role is one reflective of the film industry, and while The Substance hasn’t got much chance of winning Best Picture due to its body horror angle this doesn’t seem to have stopped Moore from her Best Actress wins. It’s also something of a physical performance with its transformations and make-up, as cited if it wins Makeup And Hairstyling, which can often pair with an acting win. Plus, there are those who are saying there’s something of a career-side to Moore’s chances and possible win. Madison has a lot of people backing her, and she’s brilliant in Anora, and unlike some for Chalamet in Lead Actor, age doesn’t quite seem to be blocking her with people claiming ‘she’s too young’ (a stupid idea like repeat wins – you’re judging the quality of the performance or what the category falls into in this case against the ‘competition’ from the year, not whether someone was too young or old). Regardless, it does seem as if Demi Moore might just have the edge in the Lead Actress race. For a body horror film, and that’s quite exciting!
Best Director – Brady Corbet for The Brutalist
After his win at the DGA Awards Sean Baker got a boost in this category, alongside Anora in general, however the scale of The Brutalist in terms of visual and narrative style is full of excellent direction and flair. Corbet’s direction has been consistently praised, and while his loss at the DGA was quite a surprise and also seemed to dip The Brutalist’s chances in both Picture and Director, I still think he has a good chance at, deservingly, winning the Oscar. Especially with what he managed to do with that film on around $10 million, something which he has been commended for a good deal already. The general style of The Brutalist, and again the scope of it, has a lot of elements and details that are often favoured by the Academy when it comes to awarding Best Director, I still think this award is likely to go to Corbet.
Best Picture – Anora
This award could genuinely go to any of the nominated films and I don’t think I’d really be surprised by any of them. However, the race appears to have come down to Anora and Conclave, with The Brutalist just behind them in a likely third place. While Conclave picked up late wins at BAFTA and a Best Ensemble nab at SAG the latter feels as if it is definitely for the overall ensemble acting performance of the cast, as it should be, while BAFTA have disagreed with the eventual Best Picture winner on most occasions in recent years. After picking up big wins from the DGA, PGA (who use the same preferential ballot voting system as the Oscars do for Best Picture) and WGA and seemingly building back momentum after some had thought it faded away. With Madison also being a strong contender in the Lead Actress race, and her title character being so reflective of the film as a whole in the way she powers through it, that could also be a slight boost for Anora in the Best Picture race overall. This is a truly unpredictable year, and while it might not seem set to win big in terms of total awards on the night that doesn’t necessarily damage the film’s chances. Remember, CODA won Best Picture while only being nominated for two other awards (Supporting Actor for Troy Kotsur and Adapted Screenplay, both of which it won). Especially if leaning into the shifting nature of the films the Academy leans towards (such as Moonlight, The Shape Of Water and Everything Everywhere All At Once), I think Anora may well end up being this year’s Best Picture winner. Although, ask me in ten seconds and I’ll likely tell you Conclave.
To read this year’s excessively overlong ramble looking at the chances of each of this year’s Best Picture nominees winning the top prize on Oscar night you can read 2025’s What Will Win Best Picture? piece here.
Just A Little Bit Random 