While it seems that one film might be ready to sweep a number of categories at this year’s Oscars there are a good deal of races which seem very close. An almost unpredictable race certainly brings about a bit of excitement to the sometimes predictable nature of awards season, and certainly there appear to be a handful of Oscar races this year which could go either of two, or three, ways.
And so, here arrives my annual category-by-category run down of what I think is going to win at this year’s Academy Awards. Trying to give some form of reason as to why and on some occasions double-guessing myself multiple times in the middle of an explanation, particularly for the very close races. But, without any more build-up here are my predictions for what will win at the 96th Academy Awards.
Best Cinematography – Oppenheimer
Killers Of The Flower Moon could pull off a win here, there are a number of standout shots in it particularly during the grander dramatic sequences and this category has been known to throw out the odd surprise here and there, but it feels as if this race has been firmly Oppenheimer’s for a good while. The way in which the visual detail of the film changes depending on what time we’re in, and where, alongside the shifts between black-and-white and colour appear to be leading factors for voters picking this film here. The noticeable details in a category about the visual look and style of films.
Best Costume Design – Poor Things
As I’ve mentioned in previous years, when it comes to the technical categories the way to predict them is to sometimes look for the ‘most’ of something instead of the ‘best’. While Barbie could earn a win here for its various adaptations of Barbie doll clothing and styles the Academy has never really leaned towards contemporary clothing in this category – hence why period dramas tend to do so well here. Poor Things has some of the grandest, and biggest, costumes on display in this category. Add that to the otherwordly nature that it can occasionally have, and the variety we see in the various places that central character Bella visits, and it certainly has the most prominent and eye-catching costume design for voters to draw towards.
Best Makeup And Hairstyling – Poor Things
The winners of Costume Design and Makeup And Hairstyling can often line up because of the mixed nature of the prominent visual detail and noticeable transformations which helps to aid performances. With this latter point in mind Maestro could win here due to the nature of Bradley Cooper’s performance and how much he inhabits Leonard Bernstein in his performance. Yet, with him not looking to win Leading Actor – as Brendan Fraser did last year with an adjacent win for The Whale in this category – Poor Things, with the features that it adds to its actors and the variety of faces we see, particularly the likes of Willem Dafoe, seems set to take this one home.
Best Production Design – Poor Things
Barbie could very easily pick up a win here for the way that it makes life size sets of Barbie’s Dream House (or Ken’s Mojo Dojo Casa House), but Poor Things, again, has that otherwordly feel. The false look of the landscapes that Bella visits and learns from are a key detail of the film as she explores the world around her and grows alongside it. The world is a strange and new place to her, and the production design helps to push and expand this for both her and the viewer. This is one of a number of close, almost coin-toss, races this year, but Poor Things feels like it has that style which Academy voters are more likely to lean towards.
Best Sound – Oppenheimer
This is another race where it seems like Oppenheimer has been the fixed winner for quite some time. The Zone Of Interest could pull an ‘upset’ due to how integral the sound design is to that film and its atmosphere of unseen horror. Particularly with the acclaim that film has had, and its potential Best Picture chances, it’s not out of the question that such a key detail is awarded with a win here. However, Oppenheimer’s sound, mixed with its score, the escalation to the trinity test and key moments of overlapping noise in flashback and haunting for the titular character all bring about the attention to detail there is in the sound design. While this seems like little reasoning compared to The Zone Of Interest, and it absolutely is, I’m pretty certain Oppenheimer’s winning this race.
Best Visual Effects – Godzilla Minus One
For so long I was predicting The Creator in this category, and while it won Outstanding Visual Effects In A Photoreal Picture at the Visual Effects Society Awards it’s general reception, and the nature of wider Academy votership may not reflect this. There’s a lot of love for Godzilla Minus One and sometimes quality of a film is taken into account here, meaning that to award the film Godzilla may end up taking the award here, and perhaps more voters may have seen this over The Creator – although both films don’t have any nominations in other categories, and the general presumption should be that voters have watched all films, and voted in all categories. While The Creator could very easily slip in in one of the closest races of this year’s Oscars (alongside that for Leading Actress), I think that (at time of writing) Godzilla Minus One could just slip in here, particularly with what it pulls off with a low budget, even lower than that of The Creator’s which was already lower than what a number of films use to pull what it does off.
Best Original Song – What Was I Made For? from Barbie
This is another category where I’ve changed my mind in the final days before the ceremony. For a good while I was set on the other contender from Barbie in this category, I’m Just Ken, winning this award. The way in which it became a cultural point and people seemed to almost obsess over it, the role it plays in the film – and Ryan Gosling in that moment, of course with his Best Supporting Actor nomination – it felt as if in a world where the infectious joy and energy of Naatu Naatu could win Best Original Song then I’m Just Ken could do just that as well. But, after winning in various other places, not just at major music awards ceremonies, it feels as if Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell, who also already have favour with the Academy after winning in this category for their Bond theme No Time To Die, are on their way to their second Oscars in just a couple of years.
Best Original Score – Oppenheimer
I think that had Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse been present in this category then there would have been a more competitive field here, but in the end the award may well have still gone to Oppenheimer. Oppenheimer’s score is perhaps one of the most praised of the year, and not just for the way in which it compliments the film and helps to build up the tension and drama on many occasions. Having previously won for his first nomination in this category for Black Panther it seems that Ludwig Göransson is firmly on his way to his second win.
Best Film Editing – Oppenheimer
There’s a case to be made for a win for each the films here – although primarily Oppenheimer, Killers Of The Flower Moon and Anatomy Of A Fall. In the case of Killers Of The Flower Moon the almost three-and-a-half hour run-time packed with character and narrative detail is eased along thanks to long-time Scorsese editor Thelma Schoonmaker, while for Anatomy Of A Fall, like with the screenplay, so much of the ambiguity of that film could be said to be held in the editing. The latter in this case could be a quiet contender and sneak up on a win. However, this simply seems like another certain win for Oppenheimer thanks to the way that it jumps through time, shows events from different perspectives while still being able to be clear as to where and when you are in time at each point. Again, generally the potentially lengthy run-time has breezed by for many people and the film seems to be almost locked in for another technical win.
Best Documentary Short – Nai Nai and Wài Pó
The race for this category seems close between Nai Nai and Wài Pó and The Last Repair Shop – with some also predicting a win for The ABCs Of Book Banning. In terms of what appears to have stirred the emotions Nai Nai and Wài Pó appears to have had an effectively heartwarming nature that may well reflect in Academy members votes.
Best Live Action Short – The Wonderful Story Of Henry Sugar
I believe that out of everything he’s done this might be Wes Anderson’s most ‘West Anderson’ work to date. Jackanory with a budget, The Wonderful Story Of Henry Sugar has the writer-director’s recognisable name and the backing of Netflix. It’s perhaps the title in this category that the most voters will have seen and heard of. It may also be seen as a chance to give Anderson an Oscar – something I’d love to see him get, but perhaps not for this particular work which while fine I don’t think is near his best. There is the potential for an upset here though, and to some extent I wouldn’t be surprised if this particular short didn’t win, as in this category in particular the Academy does like to lean towards newer, rising talent than established figures already prominently working in the film industry.
Best Animated Short – War Is Over! Inspired By The Music Of John And Yoko
As with most years, I’m least confident in my short film predictions largely due to the fact that I usually miss out on the nominees, despite needing to rectify this every year. Like with Best Documentary Short this seems to be a close race, but appears to be leaning towards the short that may well stir emotions the most. War Is Over appears to be that short with its anti-war message, and to some extent recognisable nature with its title and backing.
Best Documentary Feature – 20 Days In Mariupol
One of, if not the, most harrowing, unflinching, essential films in years – there’s no doubt that this is winning here, and rightfully so. This isn’t to slight the other nominees in this category which have also had a good deal of praise – Bobi Wine: The People’s President is particularly good – but 20 Days In Mariupol stands out from the crowd for the true power that it has, putting it on almost another level of filmmaking and bravery in the face of fear and tragedy. A more than deserved win.
Best International Feature – The Zone Of Interest
It’s nominated for Best Picture, and is potentially one of the frontrunners in that category, too. I’d be interested to see how this race would have panned out had France submitted Anatomy Of A Fall instead of The Taste Of Things.
Best Animated Feature – Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse
For many this race is between Spider-Verse and The Boy And The Heron. After winning at the PGA and Annie awards I would say that Spider-Verse just has the edge. Plus, while there’s plenty of love for The Boy And The Heron, Hayao Miyazaki and Studio Ghibli – who haven’t won an Oscar since Spirited Away over 20 years ago – there might have been or two responses to the film not quite on the same level as that of Spider-Verse but overall it has a good chance, and even won at BAFTA. Plus, Spider-Verse may suffer from being a sequel not long after the first film, and a film that leaves on a cliffhanger building up to a third instalment. But, in this category that may not be too much of a barrier, especially when it comes to a film as acclaimed as Spider-Verse, which some were talking about as a potential contender in the likes of Original Score, and there was a hopeful Best Picture campaign.
Best Original Screenplay – The Holdovers
This is another category where Anatomy Of A Fall could easily pick up a win. It’s widely predicted by many get the award here, and, again, its ambiguity throughout could help it along – plus, the Academy loves a detailed drama such as this, and a good deal of the action unfolds in a courtroom. However, I’ve thought for a little while that The Holdovers may well prevail in the Original Screenplay race. Like Anatomy Of A Fall it’s another quite traditional screenplay that voters like to lean towards – as they still have done so in recent years with the likes of Green Book and Belfast – and the warmth and gradual openness of the characters could reflect in the dialogue and detail of the screenplay. This could go either way, but I personally think that The Holdovers just has the edge.
Best Adapted Screenplay – American Fiction
I’ve been certain for weeks, pretty much since the nominations, that Barbie was going to pick up a win here. While it campaigned in Original the choice was made by the Academy that the screenplay was Adapted due to being based on existing IP. This category change may well have helped it, and as I say I thought it was going to ease into a win. However, as the weeks have gone on it almost seems as if Barbie has somewhat fallen out of this race alongside that of Best Picture, where it wasn’t really a frontrunner but still a prominent nominee. However, as Barbie has slightly fallen Oppenheimer has risen in the race, and American Fiction even more so. American Fiction has been particularly praised for its screenplay and the satire amongst the frank conversations which take place regarding family and politics. After a somewhat unexpected win at BAFTA and a gradual increase in momentum it may very well pick up the award at the Oscars too – although there’s now also something about this category which feels as if it’s potentially open to any winner, although perhaps not The Zone Of Interest.
Best Supporting Actor – Robert Downey Jr in Oppenheimer
He’s won pretty much every major award for his performance in this film and in some people’s eyes has been the frontrunner since the film was released, at least since awards season started to properly take shape. There’s an interesting case to be made for a potential win for Robert De Niro in Killers Of The Flower Moon (while Ryan Gosling is great in Barbie comedic performances never really get recognition via wins so it seems like he’s just a step away from the win, although still possibly with a good chance) this feels like a certain lock in for Downey Jr, with the edge of both a great performance and, as a number of predictions have pointed out, an element of career recognition too.
Best Supporting Actress – Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers
As awards season as panned out one of the faces who has risen on the scene at various ceremonies is Da’Vine Joy Randolph thanks to multiple wins for her brilliant turn in The Holdovers. While initially her win at the Oscars seemed likely it’s only become more and more certain with each new prize she’s won over the last couple of months, and each one very much deserved. Plus, she very much stands out from the rest of the pack in this category.
Best Leading Actor – Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer
The first thing that needs to be said, and I’m sure I’ll say this again when it comes to what I’d vote for at this year’s Oscars, is that this is a fantastic category. Each performance is genuinely excellent and this might be one of the strongest line-ups for a good few years. In any other year there’s a chance that each one could win if on their own. However, like with the Supporting acting categories Leading Actor has seemingly become more and more certain with each new awards show. There’s a case to be made that Paul Giamatti could pick up a win thanks to the wide ranging face of the Academy membership, but due to winning a number of key major awards Cillian Murphy appears to have connected just that little bit more with potential voters and seems to just have the edge over Giamatti for his haunting, and haunted, performance in Oppenheimer.
Best Leading Actress – Lily Gladstone in Killers Of The Flower Moon
To repeat what most people have said many times by now, while there are a number of close races at this year’s Oscars this is perhaps the closest. Throughout awards season the race has been firmly pitched as being between Lily Gladstone in Killers Of The Flower Moon and previous-winner Emma Stone in Poor Things. Two very different performances and yet two which have been acclaimed for leading the key details and courses of the films that they feature in. Gladstone wasn’t present in this category at the BAFTAs, although those nominations are come up with via a mix of votes and juries, where Stone won, however she did win the SAG award – with the Actors branch making up the biggest percentage of Academy votership. Gladstone also has her story of being the first Native American to be nominated for the Best Actress Oscar, and having been close to quitting acting before being cast in Killers Of The Flower Moon. The attention has firmly been on her throughout awards season, and even before it when the film was first released and she has clearly found a place in people’s minds. For this reason, alongside her great performance – which has benefitted from being put in Lead instead of Supporting as some people have stated should be the case – I think that she just has the edge in this race.
Best Director – Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer
The full name of this category is Achievement In Directing, and Oppenheimer certainly demonstrates the kind of achievement that the Academy tend to award. Not just because of how likely it seems to win a number of awards at this year’s ceremony or how praised it was, but simply because of what it does and how well it manages to combine its various elements. Yes, there could be an element of career recognition for Nolan here, but as a whole it feels like Oppenheimer pulls something off that ticks a number of boxes for the Academy when it comes to the scale and nature of its drama. Add to that, again, all the other awards that Nolan has won this year – including the DGA’s top honour, although Sam Mendes won that a couple of years ago for his work on 1917 and the Oscar went to Bong Joon-ho for Parasite – and the fact that he seems to stand out from the rest of the nominees, this appears to be another certain win for Oppenheimer.
Best Picture – Oppenheimer
After winning at every major guild awards ceremony and looking to pick up a good deal of statues on Oscar night, Oppenheimer is the clear frontrunner for this year’s Best Picture Oscar. The praise for it only seems to have grown over the last few weeks and it looks likely to not run out just before the ceremony. While The Holdovers and The Zone Of Interest might find favour on the preferential ballot, being consistently liked and perhaps having that reflected in high-ranking placements, it still seems that Oppenheimer will triumph over them and its other fellow nominees. Expect it to have strong success on Oscar night, ending with it obtaining the Best Picture award at the end of the night.
To read my overly rambling look at the chances of each Best Picture nominee winning the top award on Oscar night you can read my annual What Will Win Best Picture? piece here.
Just A Little Bit Random 